TPW Investment Management

Weekly Musings

Friday Musings

What a Week!

Happy Friday,

Monday kicked off with a Bloomberg TV appearance on The Open, Tuesday meant a NYSE bell ringing with MSCI to celebrate 30 years of EM indexes ( see picture) Wed - Thursday were marketing heavy and now the Musings (seems like I just did them!).

BTV focus was on our “Lower for Longer Global Growth Path” thesis, the search for a growth bottom confirmation in China data (check), EU data ( patchy) and long bond backups in both China (check) and Europe (Bund remains a widow maker).

Like the Spring weather, the transition from growth deceleration to bottom and recovery outside the US will have it’s fits & starts - the question for investors is what to do about it?

Does one freak out over a minor China equity pullback or see it as nice, healthy profit taking? Should one throw in the towel on Europe once again or does one use weakness to gradually build positions so when the unequivocal all clear is sounded you are not joining the herd but welcoming it on board?

In that vein Tuesday’s MSCI event at the NYSE was fun, informative and well worth the trip down to Wall St. From the flag waving NYSE pump up video, to walking the warrens of the exchange, to trading war stories with my former Morgan Stanley colleague and friend MSCI CEO Henry Fernandez, to being on the podium for the closing bell on a S&P new all time high day…. it was just great.

After the bell MSCI also convened a round table discussion on the future of EM. There was lots of talk of EM ex-China with our good friends at Krane Shares, MSCI’s POV from Henry and others as well as my own 2 cents regarding concerns about the loss of the low cost manufacturing opportunity for EMs as well as the potential to leverage the vast number of EM eyeballs in an e commerce world.

All in all a lot to enjoy and to be thankful for…. TGIF and Let’s go Islanders (heading to game 1 tonight)!

Jay and Jamie

James Gardiner