TPW Investment Management

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Insights

Bloomberg TV: Fed Speak Keeps Markets Guessing

Jay Pelosky, chief investment officer and co-founder at TPW Investment Management, Michael Purves, chief executive officer at Tallbacken Capital Advisors, and Mark Connors, global head of portfolio and risk advisory at Credit Suisse, discuss the lack of market consensus on the size of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. They speak with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro on "Bloomberg Markets: The Open."

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James Gardiner
As The Tri Polar World Turns - July 2019

In this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky looks into the 2nd Half and notes the potential for a risk asset melt up. He highlights that investor positioning: super bearish stocks and super bullish duration = being super bearish growth and lays out why we expect that to be revealed as wrong thinking as the year progresses.

  •  Economics: Growth Bottom Ahead

  • Politics:        The Debt Ceiling Rears Its Head 

  • Policy:          Fed Pivot Complete

  • Markets:       Positioning for Growth

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James Gardiner
HanETF and TPWIM Webinar Replay: Trading the Trade Wars: Trump, Tariffs, and a Tri-Polar World: Investment Strategies

The upcoming G20 Osaka meeting on June 28-29 will see Presidents Trump and Xi attempt to resolve the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

This webinar was on 27th June where we look at the interplay between tariff costs and stimulus benefits in regards to China's growth profile, identify which sectors are most at risk from a prolonged trade dispute, examine the implications for the ROW and assess the cross-asset impact on global portfolios. 

  • Trade Tariffs & Lower for Longer Growth World: How Can Global Investors Prepare?

  • The 3 Ts: Trump, Trade & Tech - Making Value Great Again?

  • TPWIM's 3 Step Risk Asset Process (RAP): Anticipate, Confirm, Re-Allocate

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James Gardiner
As The Tri Polar World Turns - June 2019

In this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky updates TPWIM’s view on the trade war and its implications for a “lower for longer global growth path”. He also reintroduces the concept of the 3Ts and asks if the combo of Trump, Trade and Tech will Make Value Great Again - an interesting question we think you will want to ponder.

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James Gardiner
Real Vision TV Expert View: Lower for Longer Global Growth Path

This 30 min Real Vision interview allows TPWIM CIO Jay Pelosky the opportunity to lay out the: "Lower for Longer Global Growth Path”  theme underpinning TPWIM's current approach to the global cross asset markets. He begins with our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) Scoring System (as we do every portfolio meeting) and focuses on Potential Growth Rates ( PGR) and Neutral Rates of Interest (NRI) which underpin the thesis. He then covers the impact of the Fed’s pivot and China’s stimulus in supporting this thesis. Jay identifies how one should invest in a Lower for Longer world noting the focus on equity markets with room for multiple expansion, fixed income instruments that offer yield, currencies that benefit from a weak dollar and commodities that benefit from a growth bottom. He discusses the risks of a deeper trade war and lays out why Pres. Trump is unlikely to go the Full Monty (25% on all Chinese exports to the US)  on China tariffs. The video is a great example of TPWIM’s capabilities around original investment idea generation, independent cross asset thinking & institutional level analysis. We hope you find it of use.

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James Gardiner
Bloomberg TV: Testing the FED's Patience

Jay Pelosky joined Michael Kushma, global fixed income chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Investment Management and Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management on this morning’s "Bloomberg Markets: The Open." with Jonathan Ferro. They examine what it would take for the Federal Reserve to make a move on interest rates.

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James Gardiner
TPWIM & Signum Conference call "EU Elections & latest Brexit developments: Implications for European cross-asset investing"

EU Elections this weekend & latest Brexit developments: Implications for European cross-asset investing

Speakers

 Anna Rosenberg, Head of Europe and UK, Signum Global Advisors

Jay Pelosky, Co-Founder & CIO, TPW investment Management 

 
Topics discussed:
•            Real versus perceived risks of populists in the next European Parliament
•            PM Theresa May's attempt TODAY to get her deal done via a Second Referendum 
•            Implications for European Cross Asset investing with Political Risk Ebbing and Growth Bottoming
•            Populists’ ability to disrupt decision-making and European integration
•            Impact of European Parliament elections on the UK and Brexit
•            Europe’s Place in a Lower for Longer Global Growth World?

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James Gardiner
As The Tri Polar World Turns - May 2019

In this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky gives TPWIM’s view on the trade war and its implications for a “lower for longer global growth path”. This growth path insight builds off the work we have done the past few months on Potential Growth Rates (PGR) and Neutral Rates of Interest (NRI), both original inputs to our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) Scoring System.

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James Gardiner
As The Tri Polar World Turns - April 2019

In this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky lays out his “lower for longer global growth path” including its implications for portfolio strategy and asset allocation. This growth path insight builds off the work we have done the past few months on Potential Growth Rates (PGR) and Neutral Rates of Interest (NRI), both original inputs to our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) Scoring System. We also include a recent  ETF Trends video clip where Jay discusses Central Bank policy and the potential for a global easing cycle to further buttress the lower for longer growth path.

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James Gardiner
Interview with ETF Trends CEO Tom Lydon and Jay Pelosky

Fantastic interview with our buddy Tom Lydon CEO of ETF Trends from early February’s Annual Inside ETF conference. Two months ago we were discussing how the world is on the cusp of a global easing cycle… fast forward to today and we think step two, global growth bottoming lead by China and Europe, is about to happen.

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James Gardiner
Bloomberg TV: Global Easing Cycle

Tight 4 min clip from Jay’s BTV Daybreak Wednesday appearance. Jay extends TPWIM’s long standing focus on Potential Growth Rates (PGR) and Neutral Rate of Interest (NRI) to incorporate the concept of “lower for longer global growth”. The lower for longer designation has been used for some time in regard to interest rates but here Jay describes how it can apply to growth. And lastly what that means for risk asset returns with a focus on the search for yield and opportunities in European peripheral debt, EM debt and US credit.

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James Gardiner
Asset TV: Look to Europe and Japan

Great clip from Jay’s interview with AssetTV at the Inside ETFs Conference this past February. While this interview happened a month ago it is incredibly relevant today.

A year ago risk assets were facing a Fed intent on tightening & a slowing China, today, risk assets can look to a Fed on hold and a stimulating China. While everyone is talking about EM and the US Jay talks about why investors should not sleep on Europe and Japan.

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James Gardiner
As The Tri Polar World Turns - March 2019

In this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky walks through the pause that refreshes and introduces TPWIM’s 3 Steps for Risk Assets. He explores these issues through our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) Scoring System which focuses on the intersection between Economics, Politics, Policy, and Markets. This month’s piece builds on our earlier work on potential growth rates and neutral rates of interest, furthers our point of view on the importance of the consumer and details the three steps of Anticipation, Confirmation & Reallocation for global markets.

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James Gardiner