As The Tri Polar World Turns - October 2019
Bloomberg TV: First In First Out
The pace of action seems to be picking up as we enter Q4. Financial markets chopped a lot of wood in September as they did in August. Given the seasonally weak period and the stable nature of asset prices, one has to respect the Teflon like nature of current asset markets.
A Lower for Longer Global Growth Path remains our central theme. Our Big Four signposts remain constructive.
We expect to see positive catalysts during the quarter, perhaps on trade, perhaps on the global economic front and expect those catalysts to have positive implications for asset prices. We have added to the Cyclical nature of our portfolio solutions.
Developed economies are enjoying record low unemployment which has led to record highs in global consumer confidence, suggesting continued robust household spending over the next several quarters. No recession call here.
The Global Manufacturing PMI appears to have bottomed & is turning up. We view the weak US ISM as a “catch down” to the rest of the world which is bottoming.
A confluence of events suggests progress may be forthcoming on both US - China trade and Brexit. All the main actors: Pres Trump & Xi, PM Johnson, and the EU, can use a win. Risk assets would be big winners as well.
Low inflation provides the cover for a continued global easing cycle while fiscal policy swings into action. Our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) work suggests progress on both the Economic & Policy front.
A long list of market positives offset concerns that Q4 19 will repeat last year’s horrid Q4. Central Banks’ easing rather than tightening, a better tone around trade and sharply lower rates all run counter to last year’s set up.
The shift in global PMI regimes suggests reasonable asset upside, particularly among the non US & Value and Cyclical segments of global equity markets while also supporting credit over Govts & favoring commodities.
As The Tri Polar World Turns - September 2019
Full show of Jay on Bloomberg The Open. Go to minute 4:30 for great segment discussing how Q4 2019 will be different than Q4 2018 based on our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) research.
Bloomberg TV: Have Global Central Banks Lost Credibility With Markets?
Overview: Markets chopped a lot of wood in August: EM’s Argentina collapse, tit for tat tariff hikes, RMB cracking 7, US yield curve inversion to name a few. Growth/Momentum factors ruled the roost for hedge funds and trend followers alike.
This sets up perfectly for a Fall risk asset rally with offsides positioning, horrible sentiment, improving seasonality coupled with full throated global easing, an uptick in Global PMIs, better technicals and cheap stocks relative to overbought and expensive bonds.
The catalyst could be a US - China trade deal in 2019, a prospect that seemed outlandish two weeks ago but very real today as both sides make nice. Another could be a Brexit deal, perhaps the only thing considered more unlikely than a trade deal. Focus on non US equity exposure, Cyclical sector & Value factor selection.
Economics: China’s L shaped recovery demonstrates resolve in the US trade conflict, suggests China will neither sink nor save the global economy and shines a spotlight on Europe in general and Germany in particular as free riders on global demand.
Politics: Are we about to finally see Trump the deal maker? The weaker the US economy, the worse the polling numbers & the greater the need for a deal. Europe’s new leadership is a breadth of fresh air & how about that Italian own goal?
Policy: Roughly 80% of the world’s Central Banks are in easing mode; fiscal policy is the topic du jour in Europe and being implemented in Asia.
Markets: Fall Risk Asset Rally ahead - the factor crash in the first two weeks in September could rival the quant crash of 2008-9. Note its all one trade: long Growth/Momo, long duration UST, long USD - reversals are likely across assets and around the globe.
Stay frosty my friends.
Bloomberg TV: Markets Are Set Up for a Better-Than-Expected Autumn
Quick clip of Jay Pelosky on "Bloomberg The Open" discussing monetary policy and the issues facing global central banks in the new Lower for Longer world of rate .
Bloomberg TV: Schoolyard Bullies
Watch Jay lay out his view that a lot of bad news has hit the market and why fall is setting up to be more attractive then expected in the markets on "Bloomberg Asia Markets: The Open."
As The Tri Polar World Turns - August 2019
Watch Jay lay out his schoolyard bully analogy to describe what’s going on in fixed income markets around the globe on "Bloomberg Markets: The Open."
Jay Discusses World View with Winston Capital
In this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky analyzes the recent financial market volatility and asks whether one should hold to the Lower for Longer Global Growth path. He notes the tussle between Fixed Income’s school yard bullies and highlights how amidst all the trade drama earnings in both the US and Europe have come in better than expected. Bottom line: we don't see the duration rally as signaling recession and continue to expect a global growth bottom and higher equity prices in the months ahead.
Economics: Nascent Growth Pickup at Risk to Trade Tiff
Politics: Not a Great P/L for the President
Policy: Are Global CBs Truly Ineffective?
Markets: Hey, Remember Earnings?
Bloomberg TV: Fed Speak Keeps Markets Guessing
Jay Pelosky CIO sat with Fabian A. Onetti Founder of Winston Capital Advisors who brings 30 years experience in banking with 24 at Morgan Stanley.
They discuss a few of their views for the world and markets.
As The Tri Polar World Turns - July 2019
Jay Pelosky, chief investment officer and co-founder at TPW Investment Management, Michael Purves, chief executive officer at Tallbacken Capital Advisors, and Mark Connors, global head of portfolio and risk advisory at Credit Suisse, discuss the lack of market consensus on the size of a potential Federal Reserve rate cut. They speak with Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro on "Bloomberg Markets: The Open."
HanETF and TPWIM Webinar Replay: Trading the Trade Wars: Trump, Tariffs, and a Tri-Polar World: Investment Strategies
In this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky looks into the 2nd Half and notes the potential for a risk asset melt up. He highlights that investor positioning: super bearish stocks and super bullish duration = being super bearish growth and lays out why we expect that to be revealed as wrong thinking as the year progresses.
Economics: Growth Bottom Ahead
Politics: The Debt Ceiling Rears Its Head
Policy: Fed Pivot Complete
Markets: Positioning for Growth
Bloomberg TV Asia: G-20 Implications and 2nd Half Outlook
The upcoming G20 Osaka meeting on June 28-29 will see Presidents Trump and Xi attempt to resolve the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
This webinar was on 27th June where we look at the interplay between tariff costs and stimulus benefits in regards to China's growth profile, identify which sectors are most at risk from a prolonged trade dispute, examine the implications for the ROW and assess the cross-asset impact on global portfolios.
The 3 Ts: Trump, Trade & Tech - Making Value Great Again?
TPWIM's 3 Step Risk Asset Process (RAP): Anticipate, Confirm, Re-Allocate
Bloomberg TV: What Are Markets Looking for at the G-20 Meeting?
Jay joined Bloomberg Asia: Daybreak to examine market expectations for the upcoming G-20 meeting as well as what the 2nd half outlook for stocks
Press Release: TPWIM Partners with SMArtX Advisory Solutions to Expand OCIO Offering
Yesterday morning Jay was on Bloomberg: The Open to examine market expectations for the upcoming G-20 meeting in Japan along with Michael Shaoul, CEO and chairman at Marketfield Asset Management, and Thierry Wizman, global interest rates and currency strategist at Macquarie.
As The Tri Polar World Turns - June 2019
We are very excited to share the Press Release regarding our partnership with SMArtX Advisory Solutions. This relationship will significantly expand our distribution and capabilities to service Financial Professionals, RIAs, and their clientele.
Real Vision TV Expert View: Lower for Longer Global Growth Path
In this month’s As The Tri Polar World Turns, CIO Jay Pelosky updates TPWIM’s view on the trade war and its implications for a “lower for longer global growth path”. He also reintroduces the concept of the 3Ts and asks if the combo of Trump, Trade and Tech will Make Value Great Again - an interesting question we think you will want to ponder.
Global X and TPWIM Webinar Replay: Where to Find Second Half Opportunities
This 30 min Real Vision interview allows TPWIM CIO Jay Pelosky the opportunity to lay out the: "Lower for Longer Global Growth Path” theme underpinning TPWIM's current approach to the global cross asset markets. He begins with our Global Risk Nexus (GRN) Scoring System (as we do every portfolio meeting) and focuses on Potential Growth Rates ( PGR) and Neutral Rates of Interest (NRI) which underpin the thesis. He then covers the impact of the Fed’s pivot and China’s stimulus in supporting this thesis. Jay identifies how one should invest in a Lower for Longer world noting the focus on equity markets with room for multiple expansion, fixed income instruments that offer yield, currencies that benefit from a weak dollar and commodities that benefit from a growth bottom. He discusses the risks of a deeper trade war and lays out why Pres. Trump is unlikely to go the Full Monty (25% on all Chinese exports to the US) on China tariffs. The video is a great example of TPWIM’s capabilities around original investment idea generation, independent cross asset thinking & institutional level analysis. We hope you find it of use.
Bloomberg TV Daybreak Asia: European Parliament Breakdown
After a strong four month run to start the year, are US equities ready to keep roaring, or is it time to consider opportunities overseas? In this webinar, TPW Investment Management’s CIO and Co-Founder, Jay Pelosky, and Global X ETF’s CIO, Jon Maier, and Head of Research, Jay Jacobs, discussed their outlook for the remainder of 2019.
Bloomberg TV: Testing the FED's Patience
Jay Pelosky joined "Bloomberg Markets: Daybreak Asia" Sunday evening. They examine the EU Parliament Election results and impact on asset prices.
Jay Pelosky joined Michael Kushma, global fixed income chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Investment Management and Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management on this morning’s "Bloomberg Markets: The Open." with Jonathan Ferro. They examine what it would take for the Federal Reserve to make a move on interest rates.